Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting
暫譯: 死亡預測的新舊觀點

這本開放存取的書籍描述了死亡預測的方法並討論了可能的改進。它包含了一系列未發表和已發表的論文，這些論文共同提供了統計方法以及行為和生物學觀點的最先進概述。書中的不同部分討論了當前實踐、概率預測、壽命延長的線性增長、死亡原因以及世代因素的角色。書中的關鍵問題是是否有可能準確預測未來的死亡率，如果可以，最佳的方法是什麼。這使得本書對於人口學家、退休金規劃師、精算師以及所有對死亡建模和預測感興趣或從事相關工作的人來說，都是一本有價值的讀物。

Tommy Bengtsson is Professor of Demography and Economic History, Lund University. He received his doctoral degree from Lund University in 1980 on a dissertation on 20th century technological change and labor market issues. Afterwards, he started to work in the area of population economics, especially on demographic response to short-term changes in real wages using historical records at macro level for Sweden. Next, he combined an event history approach with a time-series approach to analyze the effects of changes in real wages on demographic outcomes at micro level. Later, he used a similar approach studying the effects of conditions in early life on health and socioeconomic performance later in life. To be able to do so, he build up the Scanian Economic Demographic Database (SEDD), which is closing the gap between the historical and contemporary datasets and today, the Centre for Economic Demography (CED), which he started in 2006, is administrating the database. Bengtsson has also been involved in studies on population ageing and welfare state as well as on the current immigration to Sweden.

Nico Keilman is Professor of Demography at the Department of Economics, University of Oslo, since 1994. He studied applied mathematics and demography at the universities of Delft and Utrecht, and received his doctoral degree at the latter university in 1990, for a dissertation on the accuracy of population forecasts. He has more than 30 years of experience in mathematical and statistical research on demographic models for the dynamics of living arrangements, mortality projections, and demographic methods in general. From 2006 until 2011, he was the editor of Demographic Research.

是隆德大學的人口學與經濟歷史教授。他於1980年在隆德大學獲得博士學位，論文主題為20世紀的技術變遷與勞動市場問題。之後，他開始在人口經濟學領域工作，特別是利用瑞典的歷史記錄，研究人口對實際工資短期變化的反應。接著，他將事件歷史方法與時間序列方法結合，分析實際工資變化對微觀層面的人口結果的影響。後來，他使用類似的方法研究早期生活條件對健康和社會經濟表現的影響。為了能夠進行這些研究，他建立了斯卡尼亞經濟人口數據庫（SEDD），該數據庫彌補了歷史數據集與當代數據集之間的差距，並且今天他於2006年創立的經濟人口中心（CED）正在管理該數據庫。Bengtsson還參與了有關人口老齡化和福利國家的研究，以及當前移民到瑞典的情況。

自1994年以來擔任奧斯陸大學經濟系的人口學教授。他在代爾夫特大學和烏特勒支大學學習應用數學和人口學，並於1990年在烏特勒支大學獲得博士學位，論文主題為人口預測的準確性。他在數學和統計研究方面擁有超過30年的經驗，專注於居住安排的動態、死亡率預測以及一般的人口學方法。從2006年到2011年，他擔任《人口研究》（Demographic Research）的編輯。