Time Predictions: Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life (Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing)
暫譯: 時間預測：理解與避免專案規劃及日常生活中的不切實際 (Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing)

Torleif Halkjelsvik

Time Predictions: Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life (Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing)
  • 出版商: Springer
  • 出版日期: 2018-03-16
  • 售價: $1,270
  • 貴賓價: 9.5 折 $1,207
  • 語言: 英文
  • 頁數: 124
  • 裝訂: Paperback
  • ISBN: 3319749528
  • ISBN-13: 9783319749525
  • 相關分類: Unreal

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商品描述

This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license.

Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions.

Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.

商品描述(中文翻譯)

這本書以 CC BY 4.0 授權方式公開發行。

預測完成一個專案、任務或日常活動所需的時間可能是困難的，人們經常低估一項活動所需的時間。本書闡明了為什麼以及何時會發生這種情況，我們應該如何避免它，以及如何提供更現實的時間預測。它描述了在高不確定性情況下預測時間使用的方法，解釋了為什麼在時間預測的情境中，兩加兩通常會大於四，報告了有關時間預測偏見的研究，並總結了支持不同時間預測方法和原則的證據。基於對研究的全面回顧，這是第一本總結我們對基於判斷的時間預測所知的書籍。

書中的大部分內容針對希望在專業生活中實現更好時間預測的人，例如專案經理、平面設計師、建築師、工程師、電影製片人、顧問、軟體開發人員或任何需要現實時間使用預測的人。對於對判斷和決策有一般興趣的人，或希望提高在日常生活中預測和計劃能力的人來說，這本書也有益處。

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