Reconsidering the Limits to Growth: A Report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome
暫譯: 重新思考增長的限制：致俄羅斯羅馬俱樂部協會的報告
Sadovnichy, Viktor, Akaev, Askar, Ilyin, Ilya
- 出版商: Springer
- 出版日期: 2024-09-27
- 售價: $7,180
- 貴賓價: 9.5 折 $6,821
- 語言: 英文
- 頁數: 540
- 裝訂: Quality Paper - also called trade paper
- ISBN: 3031350014
- ISBN-13: 9783031350016
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商品描述
Echoing the famous "The Limits to Growth" report from 1972, this edited volume analyses the changes that the World System has undergone to the present, on the fiftieth anniversary of the original report. During the past fifty years, both the concept and understanding of these limits have significantly changed. This book highlights that the evolution of the World System has approached a new critical milestone, moving into a fundamentally new phase of historical development, when the old economic and social technologies no longer work as efficiently as before or even begin to function counterproductively, which leads the World System into a systemic crisis.
The book discusses the transition of human society to a new phase state, the shape of which has not yet been determined. New approaches are needed for both, for the analysis of the global situation, and for forecasts. The book is based on an integrated approach including the world-systems, historical and evolutionaryperspectives, as well as a systematic view of society, in which changes in one subsystem cause transformations in others. Through mathematical modeling, it defines the main vectors of transformations of the World System; makes a detailed forecast of the development of all the main subsystems of the society and the World System, while presenting horizons of changes from short-term to ultra-long-term; and presents different development scenarios as well as recommendations on how to achieve a transition to the most favorable scenario.
The book will appeal to members and followers of the Club of Rome, policy-makers, as well as to scholars from various disciplines interested in a better understanding of the World System evolution, global futures, development studies, climate change, and future societies.
商品描述(中文翻譯)
回應1972年著名的《增長的極限》報告，本編輯卷分析了世界系統自該報告發表以來所經歷的變化，恰逢原報告五十週年。在過去的五十年中，這些極限的概念和理解已經發生了顯著變化。本書強調，世界系統的演變已接近一個新的關鍵里程碑，進入一個根本新的歷史發展階段，舊有的經濟和社會技術不再像以前那樣高效運作，甚至開始產生反效果，這導致世界系統進入系統性危機。
本書討論人類社會向一個新階段的過渡，其形態尚未確定。對於全球形勢的分析和預測，都需要新的方法。本書基於一種綜合方法，包括世界系統、歷史和演化的視角，以及對社會的系統性觀點，其中一個子系統的變化會引起其他子系統的轉變。通過數學建模，它定義了世界系統轉變的主要向量；對社會和世界系統所有主要子系統的發展進行詳細預測，同時呈現從短期到超長期的變化視野；並提出不同的發展情景以及如何實現過渡到最有利情景的建議。
本書將吸引羅馬俱樂部的成員和追隨者、政策制定者，以及來自各個學科的學者，他們對更好地理解世界系統的演變、全球未來、發展研究、氣候變化和未來社會感興趣。
作者簡介
Viktor Sadovnichy is a Professor of physics and mathematics and the Rector of Lomonosov Moscow State University (Russia) since 1992, as well as a Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. His main research focuses on mathematics, mechanics, and computer science. Sadovnichy's research relates to the theory of differential operators and functional analysis, as well as mathematical modeling of long-term social and economic dynamics. He has obtained important theoretical and applied results related to the issues of dynamic simulation of controlled flights, in particular, of spacecraft and aircraft. The development of the world's first zero-gravity simulator for Earth conditions was based on this work.
Askar Akaev is the First President of the Kyrgyz Republic and a Foreign Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He works as Chief Research Professor at the Prigogine Institute for Mathematical Investigations of Complex Systems at the Moscow State University (Russia). He further is an Academic Supervisor of the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis at HSE University, Moscow, (Russia). Askar Akaev has authored and co-authored over 300 scientific publications, including such monographs as Coherent Optical Computers (1977), Optical Methods of Information Processing (1983), Holographic Memory (1996), Selected Lectures on Optical Computers (1996), Economic Transition from the Point of View of a Physicist. A Mathematical Model of Emerging Economy (2000), Modeling and Forecasting the World Dynamics (2012), Quality of Education, Effectiveness of R&D, and Economic Growth. Quantitative Analysis and Mathematical Modeling (2016), among others.
Ilya Ilyin is a Professor and Head of the Department of Global Studies, as well as the Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies at Moscow State University (Russia). He is the author of more than 350 academic papers. Ilyin is the Chairman of the Presidium of the Societyfor Global Studies, President of the International Public Organization for the Promotion of Public Diplomacy, Scientific, Educational and Youth Cooperation "Eurasian Commonwealth", Chief Scientific Secretary of the International Academy of Global Studies, Chairman of the Russian Committee and Vice President of the Intergovernmental Council for the UNESCO Program "Management of Social Transformations - MOST", an honorary worker in the field of state youth policy and education, as well as Editor-in-Chief of the journal "Bulletin of Moscow University. Series 27. Global Studies and Geopolitics".
Sergey Malkov heads the Center for Long-Term Forecasting and Strategic Planning at the Moscow State University (Russia). He also works as a Senior Research Professor at the Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences and Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis at the HSE University in Moscow (Russia). Malkov is the author of over 300 scholarly publications, including, among others: Social self-organization and historical process: possibilities of mathematical modeling (URSS, 2009), Modeling and forecasting of world dynamics (ISPI RAS, 2012, with V. A. Sadovnichy et. al), A new theory of the reproduction of capital: development and practical application (Nestor-Istoriya, 2016, together with V. I. Mayevsky and others), The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective (Springer, 2020, with David J. LePoire et. al).
Leonid Grinin is a Senior Research Professor at the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis at the HSE University in Moscow (Russia), as well as a Senior Research Professor at the Oriental Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He is co-editor of the international journals Social Evolution & History and the Journal of Globalization Studies, as well as co-editor of the international almanacs History & Mathematics, Evolution, and Kondratieff Waves. He is the author of more than 600 publications, including 30 books in Russian, English, and Chinese. His current research focuses on comparative political studies, theory of revolution, political anthropology, global economy, global history, historical sociology, and futurology. In 2012 he was awarded the Gold Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.
Andrey Korotayev heads the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis at the HSE University in Moscow (Russia). He further is a Senior Research Professor at the Institute of Oriental Studies and Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, as well as at the Faculty of Global Studies of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Russia) and the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. He has authored or co-authored over 650 scholarly publications, including books such as Ancient Yemen (Oxford University Press, 1995), World Religions and Social Evolution of the Old World Oikumene Civilizations: A Cross-Cultural Perspective (The Edwin Mellen Press, 2004), Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth (URSS, 2006; with Daria Khaltorina and Artemy Malkov), Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends (URSS, 2006; with Daria Khaltorina and Artemy Malkov), Great Divergence and Great Convergence. A Global Perspective (Springer, 2015; with Leonid Grinin), Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery (Springer, 2016; with Leonid Grinin), Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy. World System and World Values Perspectives (Springer, 2019; with Leonid Grinin and Arno Tausch). He is a laureate of a Russian Science Support Foundation for 'The Best Economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Nomination (2006); in 2012 he was awarded the Gold Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.
作者簡介(中文翻譯)
維克多·薩多維奇（Viktor Sadovnichy）自1992年以來擔任俄羅斯莫斯科國立大學的物理與數學教授及校長，並且是俄羅斯科學院的正式成員。他的主要研究集中在數學、力學和計算機科學。薩多維奇的研究涉及微分算子理論和泛函分析，以及長期社會和經濟動態的數學建模。他在受控飛行的動態模擬問題上獲得了重要的理論和應用成果，特別是太空船和飛機的模擬。基於這項工作，開發了世界上第一個適用於地球條件的零重力模擬器。
阿斯卡爾·阿卡耶夫（Askar Akaev）是吉爾吉斯共和國的第一任總統，也是俄羅斯科學院的外籍正式成員。他擔任俄羅斯莫斯科國立大學普里戈金複雜系統數學研究所的首席研究教授。此外，他還是莫斯科高等經濟學院穩定性與風險分析中心的學術主管。阿卡耶夫已發表和合著超過300篇科學出版物，包括《相干光學計算機》（1977年）、《光學信息處理方法》（1983年）、《全息記憶》（1996年）、《光學計算機選講》（1996年）、《從物理學家的角度看經濟轉型：新興經濟體的數學模型》（2000年）、《世界動態的建模與預測》（2012年）、《教育質量、研發效率與經濟增長：定量分析與數學建模》（2016年）等專著。
伊利亞·伊林（Ilya Ilyin）是俄羅斯莫斯科國立大學全球研究系的教授及系主任，也是全球研究學院的院長。他是350多篇學術論文的作者。伊林是全球研究學會的主席，國際公共外交促進組織的總裁，科學、教育和青年合作的「歐亞聯盟」的主席，國際全球研究學院的首席科學秘書，聯合國教科文組織「社會轉型管理 - MOST」計劃的俄羅斯委員會主席及副總裁，並且是國家青年政策和教育領域的榮譽工作者，以及《莫斯科大學通訊. 第27系列. 全球研究與地緣政治》期刊的主編。
謝爾蓋·馬爾科夫（Sergey Malkov）負責俄羅斯莫斯科國立大學的長期預測與戰略規劃中心。他同時擔任俄羅斯科學院經濟學研究所和莫斯科高等經濟學院穩定性與風險分析中心的高級研究教授。馬爾科夫是300多篇學術出版物的作者，包括《社會自我組織與歷史過程：數學建模的可能性》（URSS，2009年）、《世界動態的建模與預測》（ISPI RAS，2012年，與V. A. Sadovnichy等人合著）、《資本再生的新理論：發展與實踐應用》（Nestor-Istoriya，2016年，與V. I. Mayevsky等人合著）、《21世紀的奇點與全球未來：大歷史的視角》（Springer，2020年，與David J. LePoire等人合著）等。
列昂尼德·格里寧（Leonid Grinin）是莫斯科高等經濟學院穩定性與風險分析中心的高級研究教授，同時也是俄羅斯科學院東方研究所的高級研究教授。他是國際期刊《社會演變與歷史》和《全球化研究期刊》的共同編輯，以及國際年鑑《歷史與數學》、《演變》和《康德拉季耶夫波》的共同編輯。他已發表超過600篇出版物，包括30本俄文、英文和中文書籍。他目前的研究集中在比較政治研究、革命理論、政治人類學、全球經濟、全球歷史、歷史社會學和未來學。2012年，他獲得國際N.D.康德拉季耶夫基金會頒發的金康德拉季耶夫獎章。
安德烈·科羅塔耶夫（Andrey Korotayev）負責莫斯科高等經濟學院的穩定性與風險分析中心。他同時是俄羅斯科學院東方研究所和非洲研究所的高級研究教授，以及莫斯科國立大學全球研究系和俄羅斯總統國家經濟與公共管理學院的教授。他已發表或合著超過650篇學術出版物，包括《古代也門》（牛津大學出版社，1995年）、《世界宗教與古代世界文明的社會演變：跨文化視角》（The Edwin Mellen Press，2004年）、《社會宏觀動力學導論：世界系統增長的緊湊宏觀模型》（URSS，2006年；與Daria Khaltorina和Artemy Malkov合著）、《社會宏觀動力學導論：世俗周期與千年趨勢》（URSS，2006年；與Daria Khaltorina和Artemy Malkov合著）、《大分歧與大收斂：全球視角》（Springer，2015年；與Leonid Grinin合著）、《經濟周期、危機與全球邊緣》（Springer，2016年；與Leonid Grinin合著）、《伊斯蘭主義、阿拉伯之春與民主的未來：世界系統與世界價值觀的視角》（Springer，2019年；與Leonid Grinin和Arno Tausch合著）。他是俄羅斯科學支持基金會「俄羅斯科學院最佳經濟學家」提名的獲獎者（2006年）；2012年，他獲得國際N.D.康德拉季耶夫基金會頒發的金康德拉季耶夫獎章。
