Chinagem--A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of China: Theory, Data and Applications
暫譯: Chinagem—中國的動態一般均衡模型：理論、數據與應用

Dr. Xiujian Peng is a senior research fellow at the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS), Victoria University, Australia. Previous appointments include a senior research associate at the University of Adelaide and a senior lecturer at the Institute of Population Research, Renmin University of China. In her doctoral research at Monash University, she applied CGE modelling to simulate the macroeconomic consequences of population ageing and related policy choices in China. The thesis was awarded the prestigious Mollie Holman Doctoral Medal in 2005. Dr. Peng has published widely in international peer-reviewed journals. Dr. Peng's main area of expertise centres on the development of general equilibrium models and their application to China, with particular emphasis on demography, labour markets, energy and economic growth. She has led and completed many research projects covering various economic issues in China. Her recent research on China's population issues has attracted a lot of attention worldwide. As a principal investigator, she has provided consulting services to governments, research institutions, and universities in many countries including the United States, China, Australia, South Korea and Thailand.
Authors
Peter Dixon was awarded his PhD by Harvard in 1972. After working at the IMF, Dixon joined the IMPACT Project in 1975. He was the joint recipient of the 1983 Research Medal of the Royal Society of Victoria for IMPACT's contribution to social sciences in Australia. He was elected Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia in 1982; awarded the Distinguished Fellowship of the Economic Society of Australia in 2003; appointed Sir John Monash Distinguished Professor by Monash University in 2006; elected to the Hall of Fame in the Global Trade Analysis Project in 2015; and awarded an honorary doctorate by the University of Pretoria in 2021. In 2014, he was appointed Officer in the Order of Australia. Dixon is known internationally for his work in computable general equilibrium modelling. Together with colleagues, he created the ORANI model and its dynamic successor, MONASH. These models have been prominent in the Australian economic debate for 45 years and are used world-wide as modelling templates. In recent years, he has led the development of the USAGE model of the U.S. which is used in government agencies in Washington DC. Dixon's publication list contains 245 articles and 10 books.
Philip Adams is a Professor at Victoria University's Centre of Policy Studies. He was elected a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia in 2016. In that year, he was also awarded the GTAP Research Fellow distinction for the term of 2016 to 2019. He holds a master's degree and a Ph.D., both in economics, from the University of Melbourne. His current research interests are the economics of climate change and climate-related policies, economic policy modelling in developing countries, and the economic impacts of major health events such as COVID-19. Over recent years he has completed a number of projects for Australian federal and state governments, assisting them in model development and model applications to issues associated with climate change, adaptation, and abatement through emissions trading. He has also led overseas modelling projects in Uganda, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. In recent years, he has been involved in several projects examining the economic impacts of COVID-19 on Australia, with specific reference to the state economies. He is author or co-author of over 70 peer-reviewed academic publications, including articles in Nature and Vaccine.
Dr. Yinhua Mai was an associate professor at the Centre of Policy Studies between 2005 and 2013 at Monash University. She has over twenty years' experience in economic research and consulting. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics of Development from the Australian National University. Dr. Mai is a Ph.D. supervisor and an experienced lecturer, especially in teaching dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. Dr. Mai has conducted CGE modelling analysis for many clients such as the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Asian Development Bank, the Australian Greenhouse Office, Wool Innovation and ITS Global. She is experienced in running CGE training and capacity-building projects. Since 2005, she has helped a number of research institutes in China and Malaysia to develop CGE policy-analysis capacities. Dr. Mai has published widely in the areas of international trade, energy and labour market analysis, especially in relation to economic development issues in China. Yinhua Mai is currently a clinical doctor in Melbourne, Victoria.
Maureen Rimmer has been a Professor in the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University since 2014. Her earlier appointments include a professorship at Monash University and teaching/research positions in economics and mathematics at Melbourne, Monash and La Trobe universities and at the IMPACT Project. Rimmer has a Ph.D. in mathematics (LaTrobe) and a Masters in economics (Melbourne). She is the author and co-author of about 80 published articles in economics and mathematics. She has also authored/co-authored several hundred reports for CoPS' clients mainly from the government sectors of Australia and the U.S. She is a co-developer of the MONASH model of the Australian economy and co-author of the MONASH book. In the last twenty years, she has been a key contributor in the development, application and documentation of USAGE, a 500-industry, dynamic model of the U.S. economy. In 2015, the Global Trade Analysis Project recognized Maureen's international standing through the award of a Research Fellowship with the following citation: "For being instrumental in developing two of the most prominent country-level CGE models in the world --MONASH and USAGE, both of which contain innumerable innovations including model validation, econometric estimation, macro-economic forecasting, and highly disaggregated and regional analysis. ..."
Xuejin Zuo is a professor and former director of the Institute of Economics, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai, China. He was also the former president of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. His major research fields are China's population economics, social security program reform and urban and regional development studies. He has a wide range of publications in Chinese and English-refereed journals. He has led and completed several national key research projects and was awarded many prizes. Professor Zuo holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pittsburgh in 1989. He spent a postdoctoral year at the Princeton University and another yearat the US Bureau of the Census as a visiting fellow.
Dr. Xin Yang is a professor in the Institution of Information Sciences at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS). As a director of the Yangtze River Economic Zone research, she focused on aging, migration, social integration of migrants and social security, especially on healthy aging in China, the impact of aging on China's social and economic development, and migrant workers' social security. She has undertaken several state and municipal-level projects in population and socio-economic development.
Dr. Meifeng Wang is an assistant researcher at the Shanghai Health and Health Development Research Center (Shanghai Institute of Medical Science and Technology Information). In her doctoral research at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, she mainly devoted herself to the research of population forecast, demographic economics and the CGE models. In the field of population aging research, she presided over a Shanghai philosophy and social science planning project and participated in a number of national philosophy and social science projects and the National Natural Science Foundation projects, She has published a number of articles in refereed Chinese journals.
Dr Jingliang (Charles) Xiao is a Senior Advisor at the office of the Chief Economist in Global Affairs Canada (GAC). He has extensive experience in Economic modelling. Before he joined GAC, Charles co-found a consulting company, Infinite-Sum Modeling (ISM) Inc. He also worked as a Senior Research Associate at Ciuriak Consulting Inc. Charles holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS), Monash University, Australia. His doctoral thesis was developed under the tutelage of Professor Peter Dixon, a leading expert in the field. Charles has highly developed research skills with a particular focus on economic modelling, having practical experience in both building and teaching Economic models. Charles published over 30 academic papers and two books. His research has appeared in academic journals and has been cited by publications including the Economist, 'The Globe and Mail', National Post, and the Wall Street Journal. His clients include a broad array of international agencies, governments, and private sector organizations. Dr. Shenghao FENG is an economist at KPMG Australia. He holds a PhD in Economics from the Australian National University. Shenghao specializes in answering what-if questions using computable general equilibrium models. His primary research interests include energy, climate, environment, infrastructure, trade, and global value chains. He is a co-developer of the CHINAGEM-E model. Prior to KPMG, he worked as an analyst at the University of International Business and Economics, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and China Policy. Shenghao has published in Energy Economics, Applied Energy, and has led or participated in consulting works on low-carbon development, trade issues, and infrastructure projects.
Professor James Giesecke is the Director of the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University. Prior to his current position he was Professor and Deputy Director of Centre of Policy Studies at Monash University (2012-14). His research is in the development of large-scale multi-regional and national computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, and the application of these models to the analysis of the determinants of economic growth and structural change, forecasting, and policy analysis. He has published over sixty papers in peer-reviewed journals and edited books on these topics, and has over twenty-five years of experience applying economic models to diverse domestic and international public policy questions through research contract engagements with government.
Glyn Wittwer is a Professor with the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) at Victoria University. He has played a major role in collaborative efforts to develop databases for multi-regional CGE models in several countries. He has developed dynamic versions of these models for Australia, Canada, China, New Zealand and the US. More recent models devised by Wittwer include dynamic multi-country models with sub-national detail, EuroTERM and GlobeTERM. Wittwer has edited and contributed the majority of chapters in the Springer volumes Economic Modeling of Water (2012) and Multi-regional Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling of the US Economy (2017). The first volume included some of the most detailed depiction of water allocation possibilities in a multi-regional CGE model. Professor Wittwer has published on key water allocation issues in Australia including the 2007 Water Act and prospective irrigation schemes in remote regions. The second volume documented some of the ground-breaking model development undertaken by colleagues Professors Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer on the US economy, extending their work to a regional dimension. Wittwer has also edited a Springer volume Economy-Wide Modeling of Water at Regional and Global Scales.

彭秀娟博士是澳大利亞維多利亞大學政策研究中心的高級研究員。她曾擔任阿德萊德大學的高級研究助理以及中國人民大學人口研究所的高級講師。在莫納什大學的博士研究中，她應用CGE模型模擬中國人口老化及相關政策選擇的宏觀經濟後果。她的論文於2005年獲得了享有盛譽的莫莉·霍爾曼博士獎章。彭博士在國際同行評審期刊上發表了大量文章。彭博士的主要專業領域集中在一般均衡模型的發展及其在中國的應用，特別強調人口學、勞動市場、能源和經濟增長。她主導並完成了多個涵蓋中國各種經濟問題的研究項目。她最近對中國人口問題的研究引起了全球的廣泛關注。作為首席研究員，她為包括美國、中國、澳大利亞、南韓和泰國在內的多個國家的政府、研究機構和大學提供諮詢服務。

作者
彼得·迪克森於1972年獲得哈佛大學的博士學位。在國際貨幣基金組織工作後，迪克森於1975年加入IMPACT項目。他因IMPACT對澳大利亞社會科學的貢獻而共同獲得1983年維多利亞皇家學會研究獎章。他於1982年當選為澳大利亞社會科學院院士；2003年獲得澳大利亞經濟學會的傑出研究員獎；2006年被莫納什大學任命為約翰·莫納什傑出教授；2015年當選全球貿易分析項目的名人堂成員；2021年獲得比勒陀利亞大學的榮譽博士學位。2014年，他被任命為澳大利亞勳章的官員。迪克森因其在可計算一般均衡建模方面的工作而享有國際聲譽。他與同事共同創建了ORANI模型及其動態後繼模型MONASH。這些模型在澳大利亞的經濟辯論中已經佔據了45年的重要地位，並被全球用作建模模板。近年來，他主導了美國USAGE模型的開發，該模型在華盛頓特區的政府機構中使用。迪克森的出版清單包含245篇文章和10本書。

菲利普·亞當斯是維多利亞大學政策研究中心的教授。他於2016年當選為澳大利亞社會科學院院士。同年，他還獲得了GTAP研究員的榮譽，任期為2016至2019年。他擁有墨爾本大學的碩士學位和經濟學博士學位。他目前的研究興趣包括氣候變化及相關政策的經濟學、發展中國家的經濟政策建模，以及COVID-19等重大健康事件的經濟影響。近年來，他為澳大利亞聯邦和州政府完成了多個項目，協助他們在氣候變化、適應和通過排放交易進行減排等問題上的模型開發和應用。他還主導了在烏干達、約旦、阿曼、沙烏地阿拉伯和南非的海外建模項目。近年來，他參與了幾個研究項目，檢視COVID-19對澳大利亞的經濟影響，特別是針對各州經濟的影響。他是70多篇同行評審學術出版物的作者或合著者，包括在《自然》和《疫苗》上的文章。

梅豐·王博士曾於2005年至2013年擔任莫納什大學政策研究中心的副教授。她在經濟研究和諮詢方面擁有超過二十年的經驗。她擁有澳大利亞國立大學的發展經濟學博士學位。梅博士是博士生導師，並且是一位經驗豐富的講師，特別是在教授動態可計算一般均衡（CGE）建模方面。梅博士為許多客戶進行了CGE建模分析，例如澳大利亞外交貿易部、亞洲開發銀行、澳大利亞溫室氣體辦公室、Wool Innovation和ITS Global。她在運行CGE培訓和能力建設項目方面經驗豐富。自2005年以來，她幫助中國和馬來西亞的多個研究機構發展CGE政策分析能力。梅博士在國際貿易、能源和勞動市場分析等領域發表了大量文章，特別是與中國的經濟發展問題相關的研究。梅豐·王目前是墨爾本維多利亞的臨床醫生。

莫琳·瑞默自2014年以來一直是維多利亞大學政策研究中心的教授。她早期的任職包括莫納什大學的教授以及在墨爾本、莫納什和拉籌伯大學及IMPACT項目的經濟學和數學教學/研究職位。瑞默擁有拉籌伯大學的數學博士學位和墨爾本大學的經濟學碩士學位。她是約80篇經濟學和數學已發表文章的作者和合著者。她還為CoPS的客戶撰寫了幾百份主要來自澳大利亞和美國政府部門的報告。她是澳大利亞經濟MONASH模型的共同開發者，也是MONASH書籍的共同作者。在過去的二十年中，她在USAGE的開發、應用和文檔編寫中發揮了關鍵作用，這是一個包含500個行業的美國經濟動態模型。2015年，全球貿易分析項目通過頒發研究獎學金來認可莫琳的國際地位，獎項的引文為：“因為在開發世界上兩個最著名的國家級CGE模型——MONASH和USAGE中發揮了重要作用，這兩個模型都包含無數創新，包括模型驗證、計量經濟估計、宏觀經濟預測和高度細分及區域分析。”

左學進教授是中國上海社會科學院經濟研究所的教授及前所長。他曾擔任上海社會科學院的院長。他的主要研究領域包括中國的人口經濟學、社會保障計劃改革以及城市和區域發展研究。他在中英文的同行評審期刊上發表了大量文章。他主導並完成了幾個國家重點研究項目，並獲得了多項獎勵。左教授於1989年獲得匹茲堡大學的經濟學博士學位。他在普林斯頓大學度過了一年的博士後研究，並在美國人口普查局擔任訪問學者一年。

楊欣博士是上海社會科學院（SASS）信息科學研究所的教授。作為長江經濟區研究的主任，她專注於老齡化、移民、移民的社會整合和社會保障，特別是中國的健康老齡化、老齡化對中國社會和經濟發展的影響，以及農民工的社會保障。她承擔了多個國家和市級的人口及社會經濟發展項目。

王美鳳博士是上海健康與健康發展研究中心（上海醫學科學與技術信息研究所）的助理研究員。在上海社會科學院的博士研究中，她主要致力於人口預測、人口經濟學和CGE模型的研究。在人口老齡化研究領域，她主持了一個上海哲學社會科學規劃項目，並參與了多個國家哲學社會科學項目和國家自然科學基金項目。她在同行評審的中文期刊上發表了多篇文章。

蕭景亮（查爾斯）博士是加拿大全球事務部首席經濟學家辦公室的高級顧問。他在經濟建模方面擁有豐富的經驗。在加入全球事務部之前，查爾斯共同創立了一家諮詢公司Infinite-Sum Modeling (ISM) Inc.，並曾在Ciuriak Consulting Inc.擔任高級研究助理。查爾斯擁有澳大利亞莫納什大學政策研究中心（CoPS）的經濟學博士學位。他的博士論文是在該領域的領軍專家彼得·迪克森教授的指導下發展的。查爾斯擁有高度發展的研究技能，特別專注於經濟建模，並在建模和教學方面擁有實踐經驗。查爾斯發表了30多篇學術論文和兩本書。他的研究出現在學術期刊上，並被《經濟學人》、《環球郵報》、《國家郵報》和《華爾街日報》等出版物引用。他的客戶包括各種國際機構、政府和私營部門組織。

馮勝豪博士是KPMG澳大利亞的經濟學家。他擁有澳大利亞國立大學的經濟學博士學位。勝豪專注於使用可計算一般均衡模型回答假設性問題。他的主要研究興趣包括能源、氣候、環境、基礎設施、貿易和全球價值鏈。他是CHINAGEM-E模型的共同開發者。在加入KPMG之前，他曾在對外經濟貿易大學、中國科學院和中國政策擔任分析師。勝豪在《能源經濟學》、《應用能源》等期刊上發表過文章，並主導或參與了低碳發展、貿易問題和基礎設施項目的諮詢工作。

詹姆斯·吉塞克教授是維多利亞大學政策研究中心的主任。在擔任目前職位之前，他曾是莫納什大學政策研究中心的教授和副主任（2012-14）。他的研究集中在大型多區域和國家可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的開發，以及這些模型在經濟增長和結構變化的決定因素分析、預測和政策分析中的應用。他在同行評審期刊和編輯書籍上發表了超過六十篇論文，並擁有超過二十五年的經驗，通過與政府的研究合同參與多樣的國內和國際公共政策問題的經濟模型應用。

格林·維特維爾是維多利亞大學政策研究中心（CoPS）的教授。他在幾個國家合作開發多區域CGE模型的數據庫方面發揮了重要作用。他為澳大利亞、加拿大、中國、新西蘭和美國開發了這些模型的動態版本。維特維爾最近開發的模型包括具有次國家細節的動態多國模型EuroTERM和GlobeTERM。維特維爾編輯並貢獻了斯普林格出版的《水的經濟建模》（2012）和《美國經濟的多區域動態