World Market Price of Oil: Impacting Factors and Forecasting
暫譯: 全球石油市場價格：影響因素與預測

本書開發了新的計量經濟學模型，以分析和預測全球油價。作者構建了自回歸整合移動平均模型（ARIMA）和趨勢模型來預測油價，並考慮了政治動盪和太陽活動等外部因素對油價的影響。通過整合歷史和當前的市場趨勢，作者能夠提供中期和長期的預測結果。在第一章中，作者對油價預測的理論和方法挑戰進行了廣泛的分析。在第二章中，作者建立並測試了預測所需的計量經濟學模型。文本的最後一章總結了他們通過將模型應用於研究所達成的結論。本書對經濟學學生，特別是那些修讀高級預測和計量經濟學課程的學生，以及石油生產國、石油進口國和相關國際組織的政治家和政策制定者將會非常有用。

Dr. Nazim Ozbey Hajiyev studied at the Baku branch of the Leningrad Financial Economics Institute (currently, called Azerbaijan State University of Economics) between 1986 and 1990. He received PhD in Economics in 2000, and an Associate Professor in 2014 with the decision of the Higher Attestation Commission under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan. He was a winner of the countrywide Olympic on mathematics in 1980. He has a monograph and he is a co-author of 2 textbooks for higher education. He is a responsible for executing 12 research works, more than 10 international and local grant projects (coordinator and expert) and an author more than 90 scientific articles (including 25 in foreign countries). He participated as a guest speaker at more than 20 international and local conferences. He has been an author of the draft of "Competition Code" of the Republic of Azerbaijan. His research has been supported by DAAD, USAID, UNDP, East West Management Institute (EWMI) in New York and Science Fund of Azerbaijan Republic. He was the post graduate student in the Center of Economic Reforms between 1993 and 1996, worked at the Ministry of Education between 1990 and 1992. He was a researcher, a leading researcher and a head of the department in the Center of Economic Reforms (Institute for Scientific Research on Economic Reforms at present) under the Ministry of Economic Development (Ministry of Economy at present). He worked at Department of Antimonopoly Policy (The State Service for Antimonopoly Policy and Consumer Rights Protection) under the Ministry of Economy between 1996 and 2003. Since 2015 he has delivered lectures on "The Economics of Oil and Gas Resources" and "Project Management of Oil and Gas" in Greece and on Economics, Managerial Economics, International Management in the framework of UNEC and University of Business and International Studies (UBIS in Geneva, Switzerland) Dual Degree Graduate Program. He is a managing editor of the Journal of Economic Sciences: Theory and Practice and Scientific Reviews at UNEC and he also serves as an editorial board member of Journal of Global Economy Review (Kozani, Greece). Since 2014 he has been the director of UNEC Business School, and he has been an Associate Professor of the Department of Economics and Business Administration since 2017. He was a visiting scholar at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University during 2017-2018 period. His project was "Hydrocarbon Resources (oil and gas) in the Global Market and their Perspectives". The major fields of his current research interest are applied economic issues, competition policy, socio-economic modeling, macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic forecasting, oil and gas prices forecasting.

納齊姆·奧茲貝伊·哈吉耶夫博士於1986年至1990年間在列寧格勒金融經濟學院的巴庫分院（目前稱為阿塞拜疆國立經濟大學）學習。他於2000年獲得經濟學博士學位，並於2014年獲得副教授職稱，該決定由阿塞拜疆共和國總統下的高等學位認證委員會作出。他在1980年贏得全國數學奧林匹克競賽的獎項。他擁有一部專著，並且是兩本高等教育教科書的共同作者。他負責執行12項研究工作，參與超過10個國際和本地的資助項目（擔任協調員和專家），並且是90多篇科學文章的作者（其中25篇在外國發表）。他作為嘉賓演講者參加了20多個國際和本地會議。他是阿塞拜疆共和國《競爭法草案》的起草人之一。他的研究得到了德國學術交流中心（DAAD）、美國國際開發署（USAID）、聯合國開發計劃署（UNDP）、東西方管理研究所（EWMI）及阿塞拜疆共和國科學基金的支持。他於1993年至1996年間在經濟改革中心擔任研究生，並於1990年至1992年間在教育部工作。他曾在經濟發展部（現為經濟部）下的經濟改革中心（現為經濟改革科學研究所）擔任研究員、首席研究員及部門負責人。他於1996年至2003年間在經濟部下的反壟斷政策部（國家反壟斷政策及消費者權益保護服務）工作。自2015年以來，他在希臘教授《石油和天然氣資源經濟學》和《石油和天然氣項目管理》，並在UNEC及日內瓦商業與國際研究大學（UBIS）雙學位研究生項目中教授經濟學、管理經濟學和國際管理。他是《經濟科學：理論與實踐期刊》的主編，並在UNEC擔任科學評論的編輯，還是《全球經濟評論期刊》（希臘科扎尼）的編輯委員會成員。自2014年以來，他一直擔任UNEC商學院院長，自2017年以來擔任經濟學與商業管理系的副教授。他於2017年至2018年間在哈佛大學戴維斯俄羅斯與歐亞研究中心擔任訪問學者。他的項目是《全球市場中的碳氫資源（石油和天然氣）及其前景》。他目前的研究興趣主要集中在應用經濟問題、競爭政策、社會經濟建模、宏觀經濟政策、宏觀經濟預測以及石油和天然氣價格預測等領域。