Threatcasting
暫譯: 威脅預測

Johnson, Brian David, Vanatta, Natalie, Coon, Cyndi

Threatcasting
  • 出版商: Morgan & Claypool
  • 出版日期: 2021-10-07
  • 售價: $2,890
  • 貴賓價: 9.5 折 $2,746
  • 語言: 英文
  • 頁數: 311
  • 裝訂: Quality Paper - also called trade paper
  • ISBN: 1636391982
  • ISBN-13: 9781636391984

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商品描述

Threatcasting uses input from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and even a little science fiction to recognize future threats and design potential futures. During this human-centric process, participants brainstorm what actions can be taken to identify, track, disrupt, mitigate, and recover from the possible threats. Specifically, groups explore how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding an undesired future. The Threatcasting method also exposes what events could happen that indicate the progression toward an increasingly possible threat landscape.

This book begins with an overview of the Threatcasting method with examples and case studies to enhance the academic foundation. Along with end-of-chapter exercises to enhance the reader’s understanding of the concepts, there is also a full project where the reader can conduct a mock Threatcasting on the topic of “the next biological public health crisis.” The second half of the book is designed as a practitioner’s handbook. It has three separate chapters (based on the general size of the Threatcasting group) that walk the reader through how to apply the knowledge from Part I to conduct an actual Threatcasting activity. This book will be useful for a wide audience (from student to practitioner) and will hopefully promote new dialogues across communities and novel developments in the area.

Impending technological advances will widen an adversary’s attack plane over the next decade. Visualizing what the future will hold, and what new threat vectors could emerge, is a task that traditional planning mechanisms struggle to accomplish given the wide range of potential issues. Understanding and preparing for the future operating environment is the basis of an analytical method known as Threatcasting. It is a method that gives researchers a structured way to envision and plan for risks ten years in the future.

商品描述(中文翻譯)

威脅預測（Threatcasting）利用社會科學、技術研究、文化歷史、經濟學、趨勢、專家訪談，甚至一些科幻小說的輸入，來識別未來的威脅並設計潛在的未來。在這個以人為中心的過程中，參與者集思廣益，探討可以採取哪些行動來識別、追蹤、干擾、減輕和從可能的威脅中恢復。具體而言，團體探索如何將他們所渴望的未來轉變為現實，同時避免不希望的未來。威脅預測方法還揭示了可能發生的事件，這些事件表明了朝著日益可能的威脅環境的進展。

本書首先概述了威脅預測方法，並提供範例和案例研究以增強學術基礎。除了章末練習以增強讀者對概念的理解外，還有一個完整的專案，讀者可以在“下一次生物公共衛生危機”主題上進行模擬威脅預測。本書的後半部分設計為實務手冊，包含三個獨立的章節（根據威脅預測小組的一般規模），指導讀者如何將第一部分的知識應用於實際的威脅預測活動。本書將對廣泛的讀者群（從學生到實務工作者）有用，並希望促進社群之間的新對話以及該領域的新發展。

即將到來的技術進步將在未來十年擴大對手的攻擊面。想像未來將會發生什麼，以及可能出現哪些新的威脅向量，是傳統規劃機制難以完成的任務，因為潛在問題的範圍非常廣泛。理解和準備未來的操作環境是名為威脅預測的分析方法的基礎。這是一種為研究人員提供結構化方式來展望和規劃十年後風險的方法。

作者簡介

Brian David Johnson is a Professor of Practice at Arizona State University's School for the Future of Innovation in Society, and a Futurist and Fellow at Frost & Sullivan, a visionary innovation company that's focused on growth. He also works with governments, militaries, trade organizations, and startups to help them envision their future. He has over 30 patents and is the author of a number of books of fiction and nonfiction, including Science Fiction Prototyping; Screen Future: The Future of Entertainment, Computing and the Devices We Love; Humanity and the Machine: What Comes After Greed?; Vintage Tomorrows: A Historian and a Futurist Journey through Steampunk into the Future of Technology and The Future You. His writing has appeared in publications ranging from The Wall Street Journal and Slate to IEEE Computer and Successful Farming, and he appears regularly on Bloomberg TV, PBS, Fox News, and the Discovery Channel. He has directed two feature films, and is an illustrator and commissioned painter.


 

Natalie Vanatta is a U.S. Army cyber officer and currently serves as the Emerging Technologies Research Team Lead at the Army Cyber Institute (the Army's think tank on cyber). Here she focuses on bringing private industry, academia, and government agencies together to explore and solve cyber challenges facing the U.S. Army in the next 3-10 years in order to prevent strategic surprise. She holds a Ph.D. in applied mathematics as well as degrees in computer engineering and systems engineering. She is an adjunct Associate Professor at Columbia University as well as an Academy Professor at the United States Military Academy at West Point.


 

Cyndi Coon serves as the Chief of Staff at the Threatcasting Lab, Producer at ASURE Applied Futures Lab, Producing Director at the Weaponized Narrative Initiative, and a producer for the office of the president at Arizona State University. Cyndi is the Founder and CEO of Laboratory5 Inc., where she works with government agencies, NGOs, the military, higher education, and nonprofits. Cyndi received a Master's Degree in Fine Arts from Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, and a Bachelor of Fine Arts Degree from Kendall College of Art and Design in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Cyndi has taught at Arizona State University and in the Maricopa Community College system.

作者簡介(中文翻譯)

布萊恩·大衛·約翰遜是亞利桑那州立大學未來創新社會學院的實踐教授，同時也是Frost & Sullivan的未來學家和研究員，該公司是一家專注於增長的前瞻性創新公司。他還與政府、軍隊、貿易組織和初創企業合作，幫助他們展望未來。他擁有超過30項專利，並著有多部虛構和非虛構作品，包括科幻原型設計；螢幕未來：娛樂、計算和我們所愛設備的未來；人類與機器：貪婪之後的未來？；復古明天：歷史學家與未來學家穿越蒸汽龐克走向技術的未來和你未來的樣子。他的作品曾發表於《華爾街日報》、《Slate》、IEEE Computer和《成功農業》等出版物，並定期出現在彭博電視、PBS、福克斯新聞和探索頻道。他執導過兩部故事片，並是一名插畫家和受委託的畫家。


娜塔莉·范納塔是美國陸軍的網絡軍官，目前擔任陸軍網絡研究所的新興技術研究團隊負責人（陸軍的網絡智庫）。在這裡，她專注於將私營行業、學術界和政府機構聚集在一起，以探索和解決未來3到10年內美國陸軍面臨的網絡挑戰，以防止戰略性驚訝。她擁有應用數學的博士學位，以及計算機工程和系統工程的學位。她是哥倫比亞大學的兼任副教授，也是美國西點軍校的學院教授。


辛迪·庫恩擔任Threatcasting Lab的幕僚長、ASURE應用未來實驗室的製片人、武器化敘事倡議的製作總監，以及亞利桑那州立大學總統辦公室的製片人。辛迪是Laboratory5 Inc.的創始人兼首席執行官，與政府機構、非政府組織、軍方、高等教育和非營利組織合作。辛迪在亞利桑那州立大學（亞利桑那州坦佩）獲得美術碩士學位，並在密歇根州大急流城的肯達爾藝術與設計學院獲得美術學士學位。辛迪曾在亞利桑那州立大學和馬里科帕社區學院系統任教。

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