Scenario Planning in Organizations: How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios (Paperback)
暫譯: 組織中的情境規劃：如何創建、使用和評估情境（平裝本）
Thomas J. Chermack
- 出版商: Berrett-Koehler
- 出版日期: 2011-02-07
- 售價: $1,590
- 貴賓價: 9.5 折 $1,511
- 語言: 英文
- 頁數: 296
- 裝訂: Paperback
- ISBN: 1605094137
- ISBN-13: 9781605094137
-
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商品描述
Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment.
This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do—he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project.
Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system—project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking.
“This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage”.
-- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation
This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do—he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project.
Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system—project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking.
“This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage”.
-- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation
商品描述(中文翻譯)
情境規劃幫助組織領導者、高層主管和決策者想像並發展多個可能的未來策略，而不僅僅是一個。它使組織能夠變得具有韌性和靈活性，仔細調整其反應，並迅速適應快速變化環境中的新情況。
本書是迄今為止對情境規劃過程最全面的探討。與現有書籍不同，它提供了對情境規劃演變和理論基礎的深入討論，檢視其與學習理論、決策理論、心智模型理論等的關聯。Chermack 強調，情境規劃遠不僅僅是一套簡單的步驟，正如許多其他以實踐為重點的書籍所描述的那樣——他探討了規劃的微妙之處和複雜性。而且，在情境規劃書籍中獨樹一幟的是，他不僅處理不同情境的發展，還處理在構建情境後如何應用這些情境，以及評估情境專案的影響。
Chermack 使用基於真實情境專案的案例研究，提出了一個全面的五階段情境規劃系統——專案準備、情境探索、情境發展、情境實施和專案評估。每一章都描述了收集和分析相關數據的具體技術，特別強調使用工作坊來促進對話。他提供了一個情境專案工作表，幫助讀者結構和管理情境專案，並避免常見的陷阱，還有一個基於最近神經科學研究的討論，說明情境規劃如何幫助人們克服創意思維的障礙。
“這本書關於行動和表現。引人入勝且徹底研究，它為每位商業高管提供了一本手冊，以在組織變革過程中納入不確定性並推動競爭優勢。”
-- Tim Reynolds，惠而浦公司人才與組織效能副總裁
