Probability, Statistics, and Reliability for Engineers and Scientists
暫譯: 工程師與科學家的機率、統計與可靠性分析

幾乎每位工程師和科學家都必須能夠收集、分析、解釋並正確使用大量數據。這意味著需要在數據分析和綜合方法上建立堅實的基礎。理解理論方面是重要的，但學會如何將理論正確應用於現實世界的問題則是必不可少的。

這本受歡迎且經過驗證的書籍的目標是向工程師和科學家介紹概率、統計、可靠性和風險方法的基本原理，以便進行數據和不確定性分析及建模，支持決策制定。

作者的方法的主要目標包括：(1) 向工程和科學領域的學生及在職專業人士介紹概率、統計、可靠性和風險方法；(2) 強調這些方法的實際應用；以及 (3) 確立這些方法的限制、優點和缺點。這本書的開發重點在於解決工程師和科學家在其專業責任中被要求解決的現實技術問題。

畢業後，工程師和科學家必須在數據分析和綜合方法上擁有堅實的學術基礎，因為複雜系統的分析和綜合是即使是入門級專業人士也常面臨的任務。

基礎理論，特別是方法的核心假設，將被介紹，但隨後將通過現實的例子來展示理論的正確應用，通常使用實際數據。每一個努力都旨在顯示數據分析方法並不是彼此獨立的。相反，我們展示了現實世界的問題解決通常涉及在不同章節中介紹的多種方法的應用。

《工程師和科學家的概率、統計與可靠性》（Probability, Statistics, and Reliability for Engineers and Scientists）在其第四版中，是一本非常受歡迎的教科書。最終，讀者會發現其內容在問題解決和決策制定中具有極大的價值，特別是在實際應用中。

Bilal M. Ayyub, PhD, PE, DistMASCE, HonMASME, is an A. James Clark School of Engineering Professor and Director of the Center for Technology and Systems Management at the University of Maryland, College Park and was a visiting fellow at the National Security Analysis Department of the Applied Physics Laboratory from 2015-2016. He was a chair professor at Tongji University, Shanghai, China (2016-2018) and is currently the Co-Director of its International Joint Research Center for Resilient Infrastructure. He completed his PhD and MSCE degrees from the Georgia Institute of Technology in 1983 and 1981, and BSCE from Kuwait University in 1980. Dr. Ayyub's main research interests and work are in risk, resilience, sustainability, uncertainty, and decision analysis, applied to civil, infrastructure, and energy. Professor Ayyub is also a fellow of the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers (SNAME), the Structural Engineering Institute (SEI), and the Society for Risk Analysis (2017-018 Treasurer), and a senior member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). Dr. Ayyub completed research and development projects for governmental and private entities worldwide. He is the recipient of several awards, most recently the 2024 ASCE OPAL Award for Education; the 2018 ASCE Alfredo Ang Award on Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure; the 2019 ASCE President Medal for efforts to bring adaptive design to the profession to help address a changing climate; the 2019 ASCE Le Val Lund Award for contributions to resilience enhancement and risk reduction of lifeline-networked systems through measurement science and associated economics of informing policy and decision-making practices; the 2018 ENR Newsmaker Award for passionate efforts in giving engineers their first formal guidance to be more resilient to weather extremes when designing infrastructure; and the 2016 ASNE Solberg Award for significant engineering research and development accomplishments in the field of ship survivability. He is the author and co-author of more than 650 publications in journals, conference proceedings, and reports, and the founding editor-in-chief of the ASCEASME Journal on Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems in its two parts on civil and mechanical engineering. In addition to 15 edited books, his eight textbooks include the following titles: Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis for Engineers and Scientists (Chapman & Hall/CRC 2006 with G. Klir), Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics (Chapman & Hall/CRC 2003, 2014), Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks (CRC Press 2002), and Numerical Methods for Engineers (Prentice Hall 1996 with McCuen, 2nd ed. Chapman & Hall/CRC 2016). Dr. Ayyub is an academician of the Georgian National Academy of Science, Tbilisi, Georgia, and serves on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Science Advisory Board, the National Academies Board of Environmental Change and Society, and the Roundtable on Macroeconomics and Climate Related Risks and Opportunities.

Richard H. McCuen, PhD, is an emeritus professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Maryland. He retired as the Ben Dyer Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering (1998-2020). Dr. McCuen received a BSCE degree from Carnegie-Mellon University (1967) and MSCE and PhD (1971) degrees from the Georgia Institute of Technology. He was a faculty member at the University of Maryland for 49 years and served as Director of the Engineering Honors Program for more than 35 years. He is the author of 29 textbooks including Hydrologic Analysis and Design (4th ed., 2017), Modeling Hydrologic Change (2002), and Critical Thinking, Idea Innovation, and Creativity (2023). He received the 2015 Ven Te Chow Award for Research, Education, and Service from ASCE, the 1991 James M. Robbins Award for Excellence in Teaching from Chi Epsilon, the 2017 President's Outstanding Service Award from the AWRA, and the 1988 Icko Iben Award from the AWRA.

**比拉爾·M·阿尤布**（Bilal M. Ayyub），博士，PE，DistMASCE，HonMASME，是馬里蘭大學（University of Maryland, College Park）A. James Clark 工程學院的教授及技術與系統管理中心的主任，並於2015至2016年擔任應用物理實驗室國家安全分析部的訪問研究員。他曾於2016至2018年擔任中國上海同濟大學的講座教授，目前是該校韌性基礎設施國際聯合研究中心的共同主任。他於1983年和1981年分別在喬治亞理工學院（Georgia Institute of Technology）獲得博士及碩士學位，並於1980年在科威特大學獲得學士學位。阿尤布博士的主要研究興趣和工作集中於風險、韌性、可持續性、不確定性和決策分析，應用於土木工程、基礎設施和能源領域。阿尤布教授也是海軍建築師與海洋工程師學會（SNAME）、結構工程學會（SEI）及風險分析學會（2017-2018年財務主管）的會士，並且是電氣與電子工程師學會（IEEE）的資深會員。阿尤布博士為全球政府及私營機構完成了多項研究與開發專案。他獲得多項獎項，最近的包括2024年ASCE OPAL教育獎；2018年ASCE Alfredo Ang風險分析與管理獎；2019年ASCE總統獎，以表彰他在專業中推動適應性設計以應對氣候變遷的努力；2019年ASCE Le Val Lund獎，以表彰他在通過測量科學及相關經濟學促進政策與決策實踐的韌性增強和風險降低方面的貢獻；2018年ENR新聞人物獎，以表彰他在為工程師提供首次正式指導以提高基礎設施設計對極端天氣的韌性方面的熱情努力；以及2016年ASNE Solberg獎，以表彰他在船舶生存能力領域的重大工程研究與開發成就。他是650多篇期刊、會議論文及報告的作者和合著者，並且是《ASCEASME工程系統風險與不確定性期刊》的創始主編，該期刊分為土木工程和機械工程兩部分。除了15本編輯書籍外，他的八本教科書包括以下幾本：《工程師與科學家的不確定性建模與分析》（Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis for Engineers and Scientists，Chapman & Hall/CRC 2006，與G. Klir合著）、《工程與經濟學中的風險分析》（Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics，Chapman & Hall/CRC 2003, 2014）、《不確定性與風險的專家意見引導》（Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks，CRC Press 2002）以及《工程師的數值方法》（Numerical Methods for Engineers，Prentice Hall 1996，與McCuen合著，第二版Chapman & Hall/CRC 2016）。阿尤布博士是喬治亞國立科學院的院士，並在國家海洋和大氣管理局（NOAA）科學諮詢委員會、國家科學院環境變遷與社會委員會及宏觀經濟學與氣候相關風險與機會圓桌會議中任職。

**理查德·H·麥基恩**（Richard H. McCuen），博士，是馬里蘭大學土木與環境工程的名譽教授。他於1998至2020年擔任土木與環境工程的Ben Dyer教授。麥基恩博士於1967年在卡內基梅隆大學獲得學士學位，並於1971年在喬治亞理工學院獲得碩士及博士學位。他在馬里蘭大學任教49年，並擔任工程榮譽計畫的主任超過35年。他是29本教科書的作者，包括《水文分析與設計》（Hydrologic Analysis and Design，第四版，2017年）、《水文變化建模》（Modeling Hydrologic Change，2002年）以及《批判性思維、創意創新與創造力》（Critical Thinking, Idea Innovation, and Creativity，2023年）。他獲得了2015年ASCE的Ven Te Chow研究、教育與服務獎、1991年Chi Epsilon的James M. Robbins教學卓越獎、2017年AWRA的總統傑出服務獎，以及1988年AWRA的Icko Iben獎。