Discrete Event Simulation for Health Technology Assessment
暫譯: 健康技術評估的離散事件模擬

發現如何將離散事件模擬（DES）應用於健康技術評估（HTA）中遇到的問題

離散事件模擬（DES）傳統上用於工程和運籌學領域。將DES應用於健康技術決策的使用仍處於起步階段。本書《健康技術評估的離散事件模擬》由該領域的專家撰寫，是第一本將DES的所有核心概念與健康技術評估（HTA）相關聯的書籍。該書對初學者友好，無需任何先備知識，並以盡可能少的行話描述概念。

本書首先涵蓋基本概念及其實施。接著提供一個完整的範例，使用一個廣泛可用的電子表格程式（Microsoft Excel）和一個流行的專業模擬套件（Arena）。然後介紹分析模擬的方法，包括不確定性的處理；探討所需方程式的開發；解釋驗證模型效率的技術；並探討驗證這一不可或缺的主題。本書還涵蓋各種非必要但實用的主題，例如模擬的動畫和DES的擴展，並結合一個涉及乳腺癌篩檢策略的真實案例研究。

本書指導您在健康技術評估中利用DES。在按順序閱讀各章後，您將能夠構建一個現實的模型，以幫助評估新健康技術。

J. Jaime Caro, MDCM, FRCPC, FACP, is an adjunct professor of medicine as well as epidemiology and biostatistics at McGill University. He also teaches discrete event simulation (DES) at Thomas Jefferson University School of Population Health and is chief scientist at Evidera. He founded the Caro Research Institute, chaired the Modeling Task Force jointly sponsored by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), chaired the Expert Panel guiding the German government on methods for health technology assessment (HTA), and helped the World Bank Institute address the growing problem of supreme courts overriding health care system decisions.

Jörgen Möller, MSc Mech Eng, is an associate researcher in the Division of Health Economics, Faculty of Medicine at Lund University and vice president of modeling technology at Evidera. He is an expert in health care and logistics management decision modeling using advanced techniques. His work focuses on translating methods from operations research to pharmacoeconomics, developing guidelines for this type of modeling, and conducting advanced courses in DES and Arena software.

Jonathan Karnon, PhD, is a professor in health economics at the University of Adelaide. He wrote one of the few papers that directly compared cohort state transition models and DES techniques for HTA, built a range of DES HTA models for the evaluation of alternative screening strategies, and co-chaired the ISPOR/SMDM modeling good research practices taskforce working group on the use of DES for HTA.

James E. Stahl, MDCM, MPH, is an associate professor of medicine in the Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College, Section Chief of General Internal Medicine at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, the director of systems engineering for the Point of Care Testing Research Network at the Center for Integration of Medicine and Innovative Technology, senior scientist at the MGH Institute for Technology Assessment, and adjunct professor in mechanical and industrial engineering at Northeastern University. His work focuses on health care delivery, process redesign, the development and evaluation of innovation in health care, and improvement in patient experience.

K. Jack Ishak, PhD, is executive director of biostatistics and senior research scientist at Evidera. Dr. Ishak specializes in statistical methods for health economics, pharmaco-epidemiology, and observational research. His current methodological work focuses on study designs for comparative effectiveness research (such as pragmatic and Bayesian adaptive trial designs), methods for adjusting for bias due to crossover in oncology trials, and simulation-based techniques for treatment comparisons (including trial simulation).

J. Jaime Caro，MDCM，FRCPC，FACP，是麥吉爾大學醫學、流行病學及生物統計學的兼任教授。他還在托馬斯·傑佛遜大學公共衛生學院教授離散事件模擬（DES），並擔任Evidera的首席科學家。他創立了Caro研究所，主持了由國際藥物經濟學與結果研究學會（ISPOR）和醫療決策學會（SMDM）共同贊助的建模工作小組，並擔任德國政府健康技術評估（HTA）方法的專家小組主席，幫助世界銀行研究所解決最高法院推翻醫療系統決策的日益嚴重問題。

Jörgen Möller，機械工程碩士，是隆德大學醫學院健康經濟學部的副研究員，並擔任Evidera建模技術的副總裁。他是使用先進技術進行醫療保健和物流管理決策建模的專家。他的工作重點在於將運籌學的方法轉化為藥物經濟學，制定此類建模的指導方針，並開設DES和Arena軟體的高級課程。

Jonathan Karnon，博士，是阿德萊德大學健康經濟學的教授。他撰寫了少數幾篇直接比較隊列狀態轉移模型和DES技術用於HTA的論文，建立了一系列DES HTA模型以評估替代篩檢策略，並共同主持ISPOR/SMDM建模良好研究實踐工作小組，研究DES在HTA中的應用。

James E. Stahl，MDCM，MPH，是達特茅斯學院蓋瑟醫學院的醫學副教授，達特茅斯-希契科克醫療中心內科部門主任，醫學與創新技術整合中心的即時檢測研究網絡系統工程主任，麻省總醫院技術評估研究所的高級科學家，以及東北大學機械與工業工程的兼任教授。他的工作重點在於醫療保健交付、流程重新設計、醫療創新開發與評估，以及改善病人經驗。

K. Jack Ishak，博士，是Evidera生物統計學的執行董事和高級研究科學家。Ishak博士專注於健康經濟學、藥物流行病學和觀察性研究的統計方法。他目前的研究方法工作重點在於比較效果研究的研究設計（如務實和貝葉斯自適應試驗設計）、調整腫瘤學試驗中交叉影響的偏差的方法，以及基於模擬的治療比較技術（包括試驗模擬）。