Why catastrophic risks are more dangerous than you think, and how populism is making them worse. Did you know that you're more likely to die from a catastrophe than in a car crash? The odds that a typical US resident will die from a catastrophic event--for example, nuclear war, bioterrorism, or out-of-control artificial intelligence--have been estimated at 1 in 6. That's fifteen times more likely than a fatal car crash and
thirty-one times more likely than being murdered. In
What's the Worst That Could Happen?, Andrew Leigh looks at catastrophic risks and how to mitigate them, arguing provocatively that the rise of populist politics makes catastrophe more likely.
Leigh explains that pervasive short-term thinking leaves us unprepared for long-term risks. Politicians sweat the small stuff--granular policy details of legislation and regulation--but rarely devote much attention to reducing long-term risks. Populist movements thrive on short-termism because they focus on their followers' immediate grievances. Leigh argues that we should be long-termers: broaden our thinking and give big threats the attention and resources they need.
Leigh outlines the biggest existential risks facing humanity and suggests remedies for them. He discusses pandemics, considering the possibility that the next virus will be more deadly than COVID-19; warns that unchecked climate change could render large swaths of the earth uninhabitable; describes the metamorphosis of the arms race from a fight into a chaotic brawl; and examines the dangers of runaway superintelligence. Moreover, Leigh points out, populism (and its crony, totalitarianism) not only exacerbates other dangers but is also a risk factor in itself, undermining the institutions of democracy as we watch.
為什麼災難性風險比你想的更危險，以及民粹主義如何使這些風險更糟。
你知道你死於災難的機率比死於車禍還要高嗎？估計一位典型的美國居民死於災難事件的機率——例如核戰爭、生物恐怖主義或失控的人工智慧——為1比6。這比致命車禍的機率高出十五倍，且比被謀殺的機率高出三十一倍。在《最糟糕的情況會是什麼？》一書中，安德魯·李（Andrew Leigh）探討了災難性風險及其緩解方法，並挑釁性地主張民粹政治的興起使災難更有可能發生。
李解釋說，普遍的短期思維使我們無法為長期風險做好準備。政治家們關注小事——立法和規範的細節——但很少花太多精力去減少長期風險。民粹運動依賴於短期主義，因為它們專注於追隨者的即時不滿。李主張我們應該成為長期思考者：擴大我們的思維，並給予重大威脅所需的關注和資源。
李概述了人類面臨的最大生存風險並提出解決方案。他討論了疫情，考慮到下一個病毒可能比COVID-19更致命的可能性；警告說，失控的氣候變化可能使地球的大部分地區變得不適合居住；描述了軍備競賽從鬥爭演變為混亂的打鬥；並檢視了失控超智能的危險。此外，李指出，民粹主義（及其同伴，極權主義）不僅加劇了其他危險，還本身就是一個風險因素，削弱了民主制度，讓我們目睹這一切的發生。
Andrew Leigh is a Member of the Australian House of Representatives, and author of several books, including Randomistas: How Radical Researchers Are Changing Our World and (with Joshua Gans) Innovation + Equality: How to Create a Future That Is More "Star Trek" Than "Terminator" (MIT Press).
